Articles worth reading

PNP arrests 2 most wanted persons nabbed 

account_balanceMetro Manila access_time5 days ago

Police arrested two suspects who are among the most wanted persons by the Department of the Interior and Local Government (DILG) in separate operations in Ilocos Norte and Davao del Norte. Philippine National Police (PNP) chief, Gen. Archie Gamboa, ...

Manila court denies activist’s plea to stay with her baby 

account_balanceManila access_time5 days ago

A Manila court has upheld its decision to deny the plea of a political prisoner to remain with her baby in the hospital or at least at the prison nursery until the latter turns one year old. Manila Regional Trial Court (RTC) Branch 20 Presiding Judg...

Interior Secretary Eduardo Año

Año expects cases to decrease under MECQ 

account_balanceMetro Manila access_time5 days ago

Interior Secretary Eduardo Año expressed confidence that the number of COVID-19 infections would decrease during the enforcement of the modified enhanced community quarantine in some areas, including Metro Manila. At the sidelines of an event...

Metro News

Virus cases likely to hit 150,000 by end-August 

account_balanceMetro News account_circleJames Lopes chat_bubble_outline0 Comments

Researchers from the University of the Philippines and University of Santo Tomas expect coronavirus cases to hit 150,000 with 3,000 deaths by August 31, 2020.

The UP OCTA Research Team said this is the likely scenario under current anti-COVID measures.

“This is important because a less effective implementation of the general community quarantine (GCQ) may lead to an additional 20,000 cases more,” UP OCTA Research Team said in its recent report.

As of July 31, COVID-19 cases already reached 93,354, with 2,023 deaths.

The group calculated the possible number of additional infections based on what is called R naught, or the reproduction rate of the virus. This represents the number of people who may be infected by a confirmed case. Ideally, this should be one or less, as anything higher means significant community transmission.

The R naught in the Philippines is 1.4 as of July 30. This is relatively lower than 1.75 R during the first week of the month, but still higher than 1.28 in June.

Epicenters, high-risk areas

The three epicenters of the pandemic are Metro Manila, Cebu and Calabarzon, the researchers said.

“It is important that we maintain our efforts in these three regions,” the researchers said, calling them “the main battleground against the pandemic."

Professor Guido David, a UP OCTA fellow, said Calabarzon recorded a surge in infections in July, particularly in Laguna, Cavite and Rizal. There are at least 100 cases in these provinces from July 22 to 28.

Medyo maraming cases sa Laguna ngayon and pati sa Rizal and Cavite. We have to take extra precaution sa mga province na ito because we don’t want to let the numbers to go out of hand – na hindi na natin macontrol at ma-overwhlem ang system natin,” he said.

[Translation: There are many cases in Laguna now, as well as Rizal and Cavite. We have to take extra precaution in these provinces because we don’t want to let the numbers to go out of hand – to the point that we can no longer control it and our system is overwhelmed.]

As of June 30, over half or 60 percent of the total coronavirus cases are from Metro Manila, 18 percent from Cebu province and 10 percent from Calabarzon. The remaining 11% are from other regions.

The researchers tagged the following provinces as high-risk areas:

Laguna

Cavite

Rizal

Bulacan

Negros Occidental

Davao del Sur (including Davao City)

Zamboanga del Sur

Meanwhile, the following are medium-risk areas:

Batangas

Quezon

Camarines Sur

Pampanga

Pangasinan

Bohol

Iloilo province

Leyte

Davao del Norte

Lanao del Norte

Misamis Oriental

Researchers said Nueva Ecija is already a low-risk area with only less than two cases per day per million population.

Metro Manila's virus cases may double

As of July 30, the research said Metro Manila has the highest number of infections with 48,389 COVID-19 cases.

But the UP OCTA Research Team said this may double up to 100,000 by August 31 under GCQ.

If Metro Manila reverted to a stricter modified enhanced community quarantine, the total projection would be lower at 75,000 to 80,000.

But when restrictions are relaxed, such as a modified GCQ, Metro Manila alone might have a total of 120,000 cases by next month, researchers said.

The high positivity rate in NCR indicates that the pandemic is “far from controlled," the researchers noted.

“We’re far from passing the danger zone. Even ngayon even if may 1.3 it is still a signifcant transmission. We are still getting 1,000 cases per day in NCR and that is a lot. The problem is really the healthcare system natin baka ma-overwhelm,” David said.

UP OCTA warned that NCR hospitals face an “imminent danger of becoming overwhelmed in the next two weeks.”

Cebu projections

Cebu province already seems to be flattening the epidemic curve of COVID-19, the researchers said.

Virus reproduction rate in the province is less than one, which is ideal in managing and fighting the pandemic.

The positivity rate in the province has also gone down to less than 10%. The target positivity rate is 5%.

“Although the curve is flattening in Cebu, it should be noted that eliminating the pandemic in a region with a high number of new cases will take a while,” the UP OCTA Research Team’s forecast report read. “Given the current rate of transmission, for example, it will require at least 30 days before the number of new cases is reduced to less than 100 per day.”

Despite the positive outcome of anti-coronavirus measures in the province, David said Cebuanos should remain vigilant. Current efforts to contain the virus should also continue.

“The reproduction number has decreased less than one, that is a positive result for Cebu. Kaya lang it doesn’t mean na pwede na tayo maging kampante sa Cebu kasi (But it doesn’t mean that we can be complacent in Cebu because) we are still seeing 200 new cases,” David said.

UP OCTA projects the coronavirus cases in Cebu province would reach 20,000 to 25,000 by end of August.


date_rangeDate Published
1 week ago
shareShare article
folder_openArticle tags
content_copyCategorized under

Share your thoughts with us

Related Articles

Department of Science and Technology (DOST)

DOST, DTI vow to help Bicol food processors 

account_balanceMetro Manila chrome_reader_mode4 days ago

The Department of Science and Technology (DOST) will collaborate with the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) in Region 5 to help food processors, according to DOST Secretary Fortunato dela Peña. ...

Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez III / PCOO

Dominguez defends public spending

account_balanceMetro Manila chrome_reader_mode4 days ago

Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez III said the government spending according to program and additional requirements are being addressed through prudent borrowings.   Dominguez replied to a question regarding President Rodrigo R. Duterte’s...

WHO watches Russian vaccine

account_balanceMetro Manila chrome_reader_mode3 hours ago

The World Health Organization (WHO) is following Russia’s progress in developing a Covid-19 vaccine but cautioned that progress in the fight against the virus should not compromise on safety. Commenting on Russian President Vladimir Putin'...

Photo Courtesy of Makati PIO

Makati to prioritize PUV drivers, market vendors in pooled testing

account_balanceMakati chrome_reader_mode6 days ago

Mayor Abby Binay today said Makati City will be the first local government unit in the country to conduct Pooled RT-PCR Testing for COVID-19, and will give priority to public utility vehicle (PUV) drivers and market vendors when it starts testing on ...

Spurs beat Pelicans to keep playoff hopes alive

account_balanceMetro Manila chrome_reader_mode2 days ago

DeMar DeRozan scored 27 points and the San Antonio Spurs kept their playoff hopes alive with a 122-113 victory over the New Orleans Pelicans on Sunday afternoon near Orlando. The Spurs (31-38) improved to 4-2 during the restart and stayed in the thi...

Let's Stay Connected Like us on our Facebook page.
×
Click on the article to continue reading
Makati announces community vaccination drive Russia announces Covid-19 vaccine approval NCR records fewer virus cases under MECQ Angkas to give free rides for Manila health workers PhilHealth liquidates just 6.8% of Covid-19 payments MECQ extension highly unlikely Send Press Release MNC Facebook Page MNC Twitter Page MNC Instagram Page LGU Spotlight Barangay Front Business Sports Entertainment Metro Gen Metro Feature